Good morning, AlterNet America family.
Welcome to the Saturday Wrapup, where I give you my thoughts on the week’s biggest news as I consume my caffeine with you.
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Two Fake Polling Firms Got Caught This Week
If you needed a reason to stop treating polls like prophecy, this week gave you two.
A company calling itself Median Strategies shut down this week after admitting that every poll it ever published was completely fabricated. The firm released surveys showing Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass leading progressive challenger Nithya Raman by nearly 12 points, and Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong leading David Crowley by more than 20. Bass’s campaign actually touted the poll before quietly deleting the post.
When an LA Times reporter emailed the firm a single follow-up question, Median Strategies folded immediately. It posted a statement claiming the whole operation was a “short-term social experiment examining how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification.” It then deleted its social media accounts and took down its website.
A second firm went down within days. The Public Sentiment Institute, which conducted polls in Florida’s Republican gubernatorial primary, was permanently banned by the polling aggregator FiftyPlusOne after analysts discovered that the firm had altered data to favor James Fishback, whose campaign had paid for the survey. A third firm, Patriot Polling, was also suspended for failing to disclose that Fishback’s campaign had sponsored its survey.
Firms with transparent methodology and verifiable track records still produce valuable data. But a fabricated number looks exactly the same as a real one when it shows up in your feed, and most people are not going to check if the firm behind it was founded 10 days ago.
This isn’t to say you should distrust data. Just go vote anyway. It doesn’t matter if your candidate is 20 points ahead or behind, just go vote.
Nobody Is Talking About What’s Happening in Gary, Indiana
Tens of thousands of people have been out of power for nearly two weeks, and you might not have even heard about it.
On August 11, winds approaching 100 miles per hour tore through northwest Indiana, knocking out power to more than 301,000 customers of the Northern Indiana Public Service Company. That’s more than 60% of the utility’s entire electric customer base, making it the most severe storm event in the company’s recent history.
Most customers got their power back within a few days, but Gary and the surrounding communities are entering their eleventh day in the dark. NIPSCO says roughly 300 utility poles and 44 transmission poles still need to be repaired or replaced in Gary alone, and full restoration is not expected until August 25.
Schools in Gary have been closed since August 13 and will remain closed through at least Friday. The Portage Township school district had to cancel its planned start of classes entirely and is now hoping to open on August 25.
“We’re always in survival mode in Gary,” Shatiya Hardin, a hair stylist who has lived in Gary for 25 years, told the Associated Press. “And I think that’s probably why it wasn’t so much of an uproar because the first few days, it was like, OK, we’re used to this. But this is the second week now. It’s not OK for us to continually be in survival mode.”
FEMA approved an emergency declaration for Indiana on August 15 covering 53 counties, and the state has made emergency grants of up to $5,000 available to eligible residents. But many in Gary have said the response felt slow compared to disasters in other parts of the country. They use the same word over and over to describe their experience: invisible.
One Network Finally Said No to the FCC
Disney’s ABC filed a First Amendment lawsuit against the Federal Communications Commission on Tuesday, accusing the agency of waging a retaliatory campaign against the network because its content was critical of Trump. The suit, filed in federal court in Washington, D.C., opens with five words: “Government censorship is deeply un-American.”
The conflict centers on the FCC’s decision in April to force eight Disney-owned ABC stations to submit their broadcast licenses for early renewal, years ahead of their scheduled 2028 expiration. FCC Chairman Brendan Carr cited an investigation into Disney’s diversity, equity, and inclusion practices, but ABC argued that the real targets are Jimmy Kimmel’s monologues, hosts’ comments on The View, and ABC’s decision not to air a primetime address from Trump last month.
ABC is seeking a temporary restraining order and a preliminary injunction to halt the renewal process. The network argued in its filing that it has no way to protect itself from the ongoing pressure other than total capitulation to the administration’s demands.
The FCC’s sole Democratic commissioner, Anna Gomez, sided with ABC. She told NPR that Disney “has found its courage” and that the agency has no lawful authority to pressure broadcasters for political purposes.
While the NYT and Washington Post can push back against unconstitutional orders because they have billionaire owners and institutional power, the news outlets who are doing the most critical work right now can’t.
We don’t have any of that at AlterNet America, because we’d rather ask you for five dollars than owe a favor to someone with five billion.
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—Ryan Rose, Co-Founder & Managing Editor, AlterNet America
Without doubt, unscrupulous actors seeking to influence the gullible will be drawn to the potential of manufacturing fake polls. Surely, voters should maintain a high level of skepticism about whatever they read, hear or see on the corporate mass media. Unfortunately, as demonstrated by the MAGA movement, such skepticism is too often missing though perhaps that is changing.
But legitimate, honest polls are probably more reliable than our elections, if only because they use a superior technique for measuring public opinion. In particular, legitimate polling companies measure both sides of voter sentiment, not just one side. They often report that a candidate is under-water, which means that the candidate has more opposition than support. And for some elections sufficient, however it is very misleading whenever there are more than two candidates.
And in many elections, particularly primary elections, there are more than just two candidates. It seems likely that third-party and independent candidates would be much more competitive in elections if our elections merely bothered to measure the level of opposition to candidates, in addition to measuring the level of support.
https://www.opednews.com/articles/A-Vote-of-Opposition-Approval-Voting_Balanced-Approval-Voting_Opposition-Party_Plurality-Voting-260820-640.html